Journal Article
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 19, iss. 8, pp. 1601-1618, 2019
Authors
Kai Parker, David Hill, Gabriel García-Medina, Jordan Beamer
Abstract
Abstract. Climate change impacts on extreme water levels (WLs) at
two United States Pacific Northwest estuaries are investigated using a
multicomponent process-based modeling framework. The integrated impact of
climate change on estuarine forcing is considered using a series of
sub-models that track changes to oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic
controls on hydrodynamics. This modeling framework is run at decadal scales
for historic (1979–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods with changes to
extreme WLs quantified across the two study sites. It is found that there is
spatial variability in extreme WLs at both study sites with all recurrence
interval events increasing with further distance into the estuary. This
spatial variability is found to increase for the 100-year event moving into
the future. It is found that the full effect of sea level rise is mitigated
by a decrease in forcing. Short-recurrence-interval events are less buffered
and therefore more impacted by sea level rise than higher-return-interval
events. Finally, results show that annual extremes at the study sites are
defined by compound events with a variety of forcing contributing to high
WLs.
